For U.S., Ramadan poses problem

As Islam's holiest month approaches, U.S. policymakers are confronted with a dilemma: to bomb or not to bomb.

Striking hard at Afghan targets during Ramadan could stiffen resistance in Afghanistan and even inflame religious sensibilities in the region. The resolve of Muslim nations that are now aiding the United States could waver. A cessation, or lull in the fighting could give the Taliban regime and Osama bin Laden's terrorist network an opportunity to regroup and rearm.

The onset of Afghanistan's harsh winter is another factor that may affect the tempo of military operations. Severe weather may limit some air operations. Simply ensuring that soldiers in the field don't succumb to the elements becomes more of a problem.

During a Pentagon briefing Monday, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said U.S. officials "have great respect for the views and concerns of the many countries that are cooperating in this effort."

But he added that "history is replete with instances where Muslim nations have fought ... among themselves or with other countries during various important holy days for their religion, and it has not inhibited them, historically."

Secretary of State Colin Powell said earlier this week on Fox News Sunday that "it would be in our interest and the interest of the coalition to see this matter resolved before winter strikes."

As for Ramadan, Mr. Powell said, "we have to be respectful of that very, very significant religious period." He added, though, that "at the same time, we also have to make sure we pursue our campaign."

The Bush administration continues to stress that its war on terrorism is not a war against Islam.

Pakistan's leader, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, an ambivalent ally, recently expressed his hope that military operations against Afghanistan will be over before Ramadan begins in mid-November.

Khalil Jahshan, president of the American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee, said he would urge President Bush to halt military operations during Ramadan.

"This particular conflict we're involved in right now is viewed by many in the Muslim world as a campaign against Islam, despite the public pronouncements and official statements," Mr. Jahshan said. Whatever the administration does, however, is subject to interpretation. Perversely, halting the bombing or other operations during Ramadan might be seen as evidence that the campaign is in fact a war against Islam.

At the very least, the Moslem holidays are likely to be a consideration as civilian and military leaders consider their military options.

A former senior U.S. military planner, speaking on condition of anonymity, predicted that attacks on Taliban and al-Qaeda forces might be reined in to show respect for the Muslim holy days.

"You probably would not want to conduct B-52 bombings of a training camp that's close to a town because of the signal that that sends about violating the religious precepts of Islam," the former planner said.

But "less visible or invisible operations" by special operations troops such as Delta Force or even raids of the sort conducted by U.S. Army Rangers on Friday likely would continue, the former military planner said. "The more invisible, the better."

In other U.S. military operations, Muslim religious sensibilities have, at the very least, been a consideration.

Operation Desert Fox, airstrikes against Iraq by U.S. and British forces in 1998, ended at the beginning of Ramadan.

Ramadan also was a consideration during the 1991 Persian Gulf War, according to retired Army Lt. Gen. Dan Christman, who helped plan the ground campaign.

"To keep the coalition together, we wanted to avoid military operations during that period to the maximum extent possible," he said. The issue was settled , however, when the war ended in February. Ramadan that year began on March 17.

Military expediency may argue for steady pressure on Afghanistan's Taliban regime and a relentless pursuit of accused terrorist mastermind Osama bin Laden.

That may mean fighting on holidays, Sundays, and Fridays when many Muslims attend community prayer services.

"This is a real war. You fight it on real terms," said Dr. Kenneth Allard, a retired Army colonel now with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "And if indeed Sept. 11 was this generation's Pearl Harbor, I think it's appropriate to remember that last generation's Pearl Harbor did indeed begin on a Sunday morning."

History repeatedly has demonstrated that war seldom takes a holiday.

Egyptian and Syrian forces attacked Israel in 1973 on Yom Kippur, the holiest day in Judaism. That assault also fell during Ramadan that year.

Communist forces in Vietnam launched a surprise attack during a cease-fire on the national holiday of Tet. German and allied forces fought desperately over the Christmas holidays during the Battle of the Bulge in World War II.

And during the Revolutionary War, George Washington crossed the Delaware River and successfully attacked Hessian soldiers who weren't at their best after Christmas Day reveling.

Cold weather was a serious obstacle for the ill-equipped Continental Army. In World War II and the Korean War, U.S. service members also lacked adequate cold-weather gear.

But today's high technology equipment and good cold weather clothing gives U.S. service members an edge.

"We've operated routinely in Alaska when it's 60 degrees below zero," said retired Army Lt. Gen. Willard Latham of Arlington, whose career included commanding a U.S. Army brigade in Alaska and the Army's Arctic Training Center.

"I don't believe it'll get any colder than that in Afghanistan."

Cold air and snow actually may make it easier to detect enemy troops and equipment with thermal sensors that measure differences in temperature, said retired Air Force Gen. Richard Hawley, former commander of the Air Combat Command.