Pakistan's political pinch: Support U.S. or Taliban?

By GREGG JONES / The Dallas Morning News

BANGKOK, Thailand – In the wake of Tuesday's devastating terror attacks, Pakistan is emerging as a pivotal player in a new global struggle that President Bush is vowing to wage against international terrorism.

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell identified Saudi exile Osama bin Laden on Thursday as a prime suspect in the attacks in New York and Washington, D.C., and sought Pakistan's support. Mr. bin Laden has been given refuge by the radical Taliban regime in Afghanistan, Pakistan's western neighbor.

Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf condemned the attacks and promised "unstinted cooperation" with the U.S. investigation. "The world must unite to fight terrorism," he said in a statement.

But Pakistan is one of only three countries recognizing the Taliban regime. And with the United States vowing military retaliation, not only against the perpetrators but also their state patrons, Mr. Musharraf faces a momentous decision, Pakistani political analysts and security experts said Thursday.

"You can make a decisive break and wipe off this guilt by association with the Taliban, and by implication, Osama bin Laden," said Rifaat Hussain, chairman of the department of defense and strategic studies at Quaid-I-Azam University in Islamabad, Pakistan.

"Frankly, this is a huge opportunity for Pakistan to position itself with the international community and be seen as being on the right side of history rather than the wrong side of history."

Pakistan's embrace of the U.S. campaign would also win the country badly needed economic benefits, such as the lifting of U.S. sanctions, increased foreign aid and greater international sympathy for Pakistan's half-century-old struggle with India over the disputed Himalayan territory of Kashmir, Dr. Hussain said.

But in a conservative Muslim country of 140 million people – where support for fundamentalist Islamic groups has grown in recent years and many see Mr. bin Laden as a cult hero – the choice isn't simple for Mr. Musharraf, analysts say.

There is still resentment in Pakistan over 1998 U.S. cruise missile strikes on suspected bin Laden training camps in Afghanistan, after the bombings of two U.S. embassies in East Africa. The United States didn't consult Pakistan before firing the missiles through Pakistani airspace from warships in the Indian Ocean.

Now, "it's really a difficult and very delicate situation for Musharraf to cooperate," said Khalid Rahman, executive director of the Institute of Policy Studies, an Islamabad think tank. "He can cooperate in investigating, but in attacking something – this is not going to be rational and this is not going to be acceptable at the domestic level and even, I think, at the international level."

Many Pakistanis say the U.S. government is reaping the fruits of its pro-Israeli policies in the Middle East and what is perceived as its hostility toward Muslims around the world.

Mr. bin Laden "had no popularity" in Pakistan during the Afghan war against invading Soviet forces during the 1980s and even afterward, Mr. Rahman said. "But then the Americans themselves blew him up into such a big figure that he became the symbol that he is the person standing alone against American policies and who is vocal enough to articulate people's feelings."

Skeptical Pakistanis will have to be shown evidence of Mr. bin Laden's involvement in the latest attacks to convince them that this is not just another case of anti-Muslim bias by the United States, analysts said.

"President Musharraf has pledged his full cooperation with the United States, and this is a good thing," said Mohammad Eusoph, an Islamabad bookseller. "But what we hear in Pakistan is that Osama bin Laden and the Taliban were not involved in this, that there was no Muslim involved in this."

He said he would oppose Pakistani government support of any U.S. military operation against Mr. bin Laden or the Taliban. The U.S. request for assistance presents Mr. Musharraf with another dilemma – one that could be a golden opportunity to pull Pakistan from its most debilitating domestic political quagmire, the country's costly obsession with Kashmir, Dr. Hussain said.

Pakistan currently hosts a number of training camps for Kashmiri guerrillas and their supporters from other Islamic countries, who are fighting to overthrow Indian rule in the eastern two-thirds of the disputed territory, according to former Pakistani military commanders. The Pakistani military's sponsorship of those training camps has long been denounced by India as a form of state terrorism.

If Mr. Musharraf wishes to gain acceptance as a full partner in an international crusade against terrorism, he will have to close the Kashmiri guerrilla camps, Dr. Hussain said.

"You can't be supporting these jihad camps on one hand and joining with the international community to isolate the Taliban on the other," he said.

The fact that the Musharraf government is a military regime should allow it to make these hard choices and survive the expected political firestorms, Dr. Hussain said.

"I don't think the backlash is going to be so severe as to destabilize Musharraf and pave the way for the rise of the [radical Islamic forces], as a lot of people have predicted," he said.

"If Musharraf were to address the nation tomorrow and tell the people what these stark choices are – either you swim with the international community or you sink with the Taliban – I think people will understand the kind of pressure that he is under, and the kind of changes that need to be made."