Analysis and Perspective
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America's coming conflict: How long could it last?
By Doug Irving, kgw.com StaffPORTLAND, Ore. – A sustained American attack on terrorism would take decades to win and cost many lives, a retired Oregon general who led armed forces in the Persian Gulf War said Friday.
Such a conflict would resemble the drawn-out Cold War and not the quick-hit Gulf War, retired Air Force Chief of Staff Merrill McPeak said.
“This is going to be a long-term deal,” said McPeak of Lake Oswego, who serves as KGW’s military analyst. “We’re going to lose a lot of people and spend a lot of money. And hopefully, at the end of the day, we will prevail.”
President Bush called up as many as 50,000 National Guard troops and reserves Friday as the nation mourned the victims of this week’s coordinated terrorist attack. Congress approved spending $40 billion on relief and anti-terrorist efforts.
Military analysts, including McPeak, expect early military strikes to target Afghanistan, which has harbored prime suspect Osama bin Laden. But, McPeak said, “the list of candidates opens with Afghanistan. It does not close with Afghanistan.”
Instead, the United States should be preparing for a world-wide war against terrorism that could take generations, McPeak said. Israel has fought terrorism for decades and not yet won.
Amid talk of war, McPeak cautioned that the country should not attack “in a knee-jerk fashion.” It should first prepare for a “marathon problem, not a 100-meter dash.” The Bush administration, he said, should take plenty of time to rally the nation to the idea of a longer war.
“We are about to start using American muscle,” McPeak said. “I hope we use American brain as well.”
The first strikes against terrorists could come from anywhere: the Gulf War opened with bombers flying against Baghdad from Missouri.
A longer-range battle, though, might demand that American forces move closer to their targets. If they are attacking Afghanistan, McPeak said, that would mean bases in the Indian Ocean, on Guam and in Saudi Arabia, “one big aircraft carrier.”
Army troops likely would need to move to those bases to protect them.
The ultimate goal, though, should be “making sure they [terrorists} don’t have any real estate to stand on … don’t have any friendly neighborhoods,” McPeak said. That helps make Afghanistan a likely target.
“My assumption is, in any long war like the Cold War, you have victories and defeats,” McPeak said. “September 11 was a defeat for us. There will be more defeats.”