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Analysis and Perspective
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Counting on Afghans to catch Osama bin Laden hasn't worked so farBy SALLY BUZBEE WASHINGTON One reason the United States hasn't caught Osama bin Laden is the decision to depend on Afghans to do most of the hunting rather than commit thousands of U.S. troops on the ground, many military experts believe.
The U.S. commander of the war, acknowledging that Afghan allies sometimes have different priorities than finding bin Laden, insisted Friday that relying on them still is the only way to operate in the big, unfamiliar and daunting country.
Some Afghans probably are accepting bribes to free al-Qaida or Taliban fighters whom the U.S. wishes to interrogate, said Gen. Tommy Franks, the head of U.S. Central Command. Some may even feed bad intelligence to the United States to bring on attacks against their own enemies.
But Franks said he doesn't want more U.S. troops in Afghanistan about 4,000 are there now because the country remains very dangerous. A U.S. Army Special Forces soldier was killed by enemy fire Friday.
"The very best approach in a country is if one finds willing allies who know the ground, know the people," Franks said.
He added: "We don't know where bin Laden is." And he said, "If we absolutely knew where (Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed) Omar was, then we probably would be taking pretty direct action."
The drawbacks of using Afghans as America's eyes, ears and muscle have been apparent for some time, military experts say. After kicking out the Taliban, many Afghan tribal leaders have worked first to consolidate their own power, viewing the American goals as secondary.
"Generally speaking, people are against the Taliban," said Ali Jalali, a former Afghan fighter who has advised the U.S. Army. "But among the local strongmen and warlords, there are some different priorities, some conflicts of interest."
Around Tora Bora, U.S. officials acknowledge they have tried to use the incentives of money, weapons and cold-weather gear to get Afghans to search cave to cave for bin Laden.
At a key moment last month when U.S. bombing and the Afghan tribal offensive had pushed al-Qaida from their cave hideouts around Tora Bora, senior defense officials said Franks was considering sending several hundred Marines to aid the search.
At the time, U.S. officials were concerned that Afghan tribal leaders considered their part of the war over and were unwilling to quickly switch to searching for bin Laden.
Those extra U.S. troops were never sent, and Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld insisted recently that such an option had never been considered. A smaller number of U.S. special forces are there, working with Afghan searchers.
Pentagon officials have said that the longer bin Laden remains undetected, the more options he has for eluding hunters. Franks said Friday he could be dead or alive, in Afghanistan or elsewhere.
Meanwhile, in the mountains north of Kandahar where Omar is believed hiding, U.S. officials have little direct control over the confused negotiations to gain his surrender, Rumsfeld said Thursday.
Afghanistan's new prime minister, Hamid Karzai, supports America's aim of gaining control of Omar. But the actual negotiations are being done by "multiple parties" not under U.S. control, Rumsfeld said.
Once before, during Kandahar's fall, negotiations lasted so long that top Taliban leaders like Omar apparently had time to slip away, says an American colonel who was advising Karzai at the time.
"I don't think that anyone was trying to help them, just that the Taliban leadership took advantage of the time, using their underlings to negotiate so they could slip out," said the American colonel, identified only as Dave, who spoke to reporters Friday in Kandahar.
American special forces have to rely heavily on their Afghan allies for intelligence about whom to trust, Dave said. At times, Afghans have switched sides so quickly that it's been "unnerving," he said.
The United States also has depended on Pakistan to catch any fleeing al-Qaida at its border with Afghanistan. Pakistan has placed army troops there, but Pakistan's president "does not have control in that region like a normal government has within its territory," said Charles Fairbanks, an Afghan expert in Washington. "Bin Laden could have found tribal sympathizers there, and the Pakistani army would not have known."
Both Franks and Rumsfeld say they remain determined to get Omar and bin Laden, and expect success.
Herbert E. Meyer, vice chairman of the CIA's National Intelligence Council, said the task is tricky but possible.
"They'll wind up succeeding at precisely the moment when it's least expected," Meyer said.
APNP-01-04-02 1558CST |
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