U.S. walks tightrope to gain Arab support

09/20/2001

By TOD ROBBERSON / The Dallas Morning News

AMMAN, Jordan – Serious challenges remain in U.S. efforts to calm Israeli-Palestinian tensions while mustering Arab support for a military response to last week's attacks in New York and Washington, diplomats and political analysts in the region said.

Israeli troops pulled back tanks as a tenuous cease-fire took effect in the occupied territories Wednesday, but the calm was interrupted late in the day by an explosion in a Jewish settlement and a two-hour gunbattle in the West Bank town of Hebron.

Israeli and Palestinian commanders were to meet to talk about resuming security coordination, The Associated Press reported. The AP quoted Israeli spokeswoman Yaffa Ben-Ari as saying that a meeting between Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres and Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat could take place before the end of the week . Israel has said the meeting could occur only after 48 hours of calm.

Arab governments are pointing to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict as one of many politically charged issues making them reluctant to support a U.S.-led strike against Afghanistan, Iraq or any Muslim country identified as having assisted with the Sept. 11 attacks.

Analysts say divisions are growing between Arab leaders, who see the need for a strong diplomatic show of support for the United States, and Arabs on the street, who have threatened a potentially destabilizing wave of protests if any U.S.-led military strikes occur.

"In the long term, people are expecting the worst. There will be a backlash in public opinion. There will be a harsh public reaction," said a former senior Jordanian official.

It is a delicate balancing act for many Arab leaders, who do not want to provoke internal dissent but want to avoid angering Washington by appearing soft on terrorism.

Mindful of the current mind-set in the United States and the fact that some Palestinians celebrated in the streets after the Sept. 11 attacks, Mr. Arafat ordered Palestinian forces in the occupied territories to honor a unilateral truce beginning Tuesday. He told them to hold their fire even if attacked.

Mr. Arafat's cease-fire declaration won immediate praise from the White House and Israeli leadership, but the militant Palestinian groups Hamas and Islamic Jihad refused to cooperate.

"Hamas has a very clear position: As long as the occupation exists on our homeland, there will be no talk of a cease-fire," said Sheik Ahmed Yassin, the group's spiritual leader.

Elsewhere in the region, similar challenges remain for Arab leaders as the United States pressures them to help in organizing retaliatory attacks.

The Saudi foreign minister was expected in Washington to discuss the planned U.S. response, as the Pentagon announced it was sending dozens of U.S. fighter jets to the Gulf region. Saudi Arabia has been mentioned as one possible base for American warplanes.

Iraq and Afghanistan are high on the list of potential targets for allegedly providing logistical support to the groups that launched the Sept. 11 terror attacks.

Arab countries have been slow to publicly embrace the idea of an attack on Afghanistan, whose ruling Taliban militia has gained popularity across the region, diplomats say.

Virtually every major nation in the region – Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Sudan and Algeria – has suffered some type of high-profile uprising or attack by Muslim militant groups in recent years. With Western culture seen as increasing its influence within the region, Islamic militancy and anti-Western sentiment are reaching potentially destabilizing proportions, according to political analysts.

A U.S. attack on Afghanistan would "create bitterness, which will bring up generations that may be more aggressive, more hostile in dealing with the international community," Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir warned.

Still, many Arabs seemed resigned to the idea of a U.S. attack on Afghanistan because of the Taliban's support for exiled Saudi millionaire Osama bin Laden, whose militant group, al-Qaeda, is believed to be behind last week's attacks in the United States.

"Iraq is a totally different story," a Western diplomat said. "Popular reaction is going to be much more strong if Iraq is included" in U.S. military retaliatory attacks. "If the Americans want a coalition, they can't include Iraq on the target list."

To make the military campaign more palatable to the Arab population, leaders in the region are asking Washington, at a minimum, to provide proof of culpability before taking military action against nations accused of supporting the attacks on New York and Washington.

The U.S. government has indicated it cannot provide such proof without compromising intelligence sources it views as crucial in its newly declared war on terrorism.

Labib Kamhawi, a Jordanian political scientist, said the prospect of protests could force Arab leaders to go on television in coming days to explain to their people why it is necessary to support the U.S. military campaign in spite of popular opposition.

"People want to know: Are we talking about revenge or punishment? If it's punishment, the people can support it," he said. "But if the U.S. is using these attacks to settle old scores and take care of unfinished business, that's going to be a completely different story."