Taliban lying in wait, experts say

To make one wrong move against the estimated 50,000 fighters of Afghanistan's Taliban movement is to risk disaster, according to military experts who are versed in the militia's fighting strategies. There are no good ways to fight them, the experts say, but many ways to be beaten by them.

As the U.S. military moves into the expected next stage in its war in Afghanistan – stepped-up ground assaults – strategists face some perplexing questions regarding the unusual enemy they now confront.

The Taliban and its mostly Arab ally, al-Qaeda, possess such a potent mixture of ruthlessness, patience, and guerrilla tactical skills that they are proving to be the most formidable fighting force the United States has faced since the ill-fated U.S. war in Vietnam. Al-Qaeda and its leader, Saudi-born millionaire Osama bin Laden, are accused by the United States of launching the Sept. 11 attacks in New York, Washington, and Pennsylvania.

"They are proven to be tough warriors," said Rear Adm. John D. Stufflebeem, Pentagon deputy director of operations for current readiness and capabilities. "We're in an environment they, obviously, are experts in, and it is extremely harsh. I am a bit surprised at how doggedly they're hanging on ... to power."

Pentagon and independent military strategists are so confounded by Taliban and al-Qaeda tactics, they are turning to a new doctrine, called "fourth-generation warfare," to help identify ways to fight them, according to the independent group Defense and the National Interest.

The doctrine focuses on warfare beyond the earlier generations of classic infantry and guerrilla combat, where borders, armies, and a clash of political philosophies tended to shape the way wars were fought and resolved. "Fourth generation," according to the group, "includes all forms of conflict where the other side refuses to stand up and fight fair."

Typical of any fourth-generation movement such as the Taliban and al-Qaeda, Defense and the National Interest says, is its ability largely to sidestep conventional fighting forces.

"It is a strange form of warfare, one where ... military force plays a much smaller [though still critical] role."

The U.S. record in Afghanistan since it began attacking with massive air power on Oct. 7 underscores the point of how conventional military force does not work against the Taliban, said retired Pakistani Gen. Talat Masood.

"I don't think they're doing anything incorrectly," he said of U.S. military strategists, but still, the Taliban has not retreated.

Three weeks of intense, round-the-clock bombardment – reportedly using thousands of cruise missiles, laser-guided rockets, cluster bombs, bunker-busting bombs, and hundreds of sorties by F-14s, Stealth bombers, attack helicopters, and AC-130 gunships – seems not to have dramatically altered the balance on the ground in Afghanistan, said Rifaat Hussain, a respected Pakistani military analyst.

The opposition Northern Alliance finds itself stalled in an assault on two frontline cities – Kabul and Mazar-e Sharif – whose capture would be crucial in setting the stage for a larger U.S. ground assault. Without securing one of those cities, the United States would have no established air bases where it could land ground troops.

Even though the United States spent the last week bombing the Taliban front line in support of the Northern Alliance, the hard-line Muslim fighting force has held its ground and, in some cases, forced the Northern Alliance to retreat.

And despite a much-touted ground assault by more than 100 U.S. special forces troops last weekend, Pakistani military analysts noted that there have been no U.S. claims of success on the ground – and no additional reported ground forays.

Key to Taliban and al-Qaeda survival against overwhelming U.S. force is the element of surprise. The groups are said to control a vast network of caves and tunnels that riddle the Afghan countryside.

Yvonne Ridley, a British journalist who was captured by the Taliban in late September and released just after the bombing campaign began, said she got a firsthand look at the network of hiding places at the Taliban's disposal.

Her account, published in the Sunday Express newspaper after her release, provides a narrative about "green plains, rivers and reservoirs, magnificent mountains and literally hundreds of foxholes and caves. I realize that President Bush's threat to 'smoke them out' is highly unrealistic and futile."

A Pakistani who trained in Afghanistan in 1992 and remains active in a Muslim militia allied with al-Qaeda said that the network of caves and tunnels is not only intricate but also heavily fortified.

"The bunkers are very, very deep. They are very secure," said the man, whose name is being withheld to protect him from possible retribution for speaking to a reporter. The Pakistani said that, in addition to troops, the caves contain a variety of arms, bombs, missiles, and other equipment.

The United States could possess a map of such a cave and know its exact location, he said, but it would do no good. "If ... you fire 1,000 missiles and you are sure from the surface of the earth to 50 feet down [that] there is nothing left, this will make no difference to the camp, because it is in so deep."

Mr. bin Laden, a civil engineer whose family owns one of Saudi Arabia's biggest construction firms, has proved to be a master at constructing fortified caves interlinked with tunnels. He and other mujahedeen fighters used the cave network to devastating effect against Soviet troops during their 1979-89 occupation of Afghanistan.

"If these guys are deep in the caves, you can't go in and get them," Mr. Hussain said. "I'm reviewing my history of the Soviet war right now, recalling how the Afghans picked the Soviets apart by luring them into the caves, the canyons, gullies, and gorges."

In addition, he said, the caves are big enough to store many of the 300 tanks the Taliban possesses, along with anti-aircraft missiles and a few jet fighters.

But light arms, guerrilla tactics, and rapid deployment capabilities will continue to be the Taliban's strong suit in combating the Americans, he said.

Retired Gen. Hamid Gul, who worked closely with mujahedeen forces while serving as chief of the Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence office, said he expects the Taliban to withdraw into the hills and mountains and simply wait patiently until U.S. ground forces come looking for them.

"There will be a reserve force and then a second-line reserve force" left in the cities, Mr. Gul said. "As soon as the cities are occupied by any opposition [American or Northern Alliance], they will descend from the hills, then go for their throats."

In addition, the Taliban will maintain a large network of armed civilian loyalists waiting inside the cities and villages, Mr. Gul said. "They are like mobs, armed mobs, sort of a militarized posse. Lots of people will just get up from their villages" and descend on any invasion forces en masse.

"When it comes to tactical planning, they are extremely good," Mr. Gul said of the Taliban.

Mr. Masood underscored the conundrum that U.S. military strategists face in converting the air-based campaign into a ground assault. To root out the Taliban and al-Qaeda, the United States must commit large numbers of ground forces – a minimum of 20,000 troops, he said. When that amount proves inadequate, more will be needed.

"When do you say, that's enough, no more?" he said. "It's not only the forces on the ground but the 30,000 or 40,000 you need to support them."

But even worse, Mr. Masood said, the commitment of ground forces also plays directly into the Taliban's hands.

"You are then fighting them exactly the way they want you to fight. You do commando raids, and they will respond with guerrilla raids. It's their skills versus your skills," Mr. Masood said. "You have mobility with helicopters, but they are the ones with experience on the ground – and it's their country. ... They have the numbers."

Speaking to reporters at the Pentagon, Adm. Stufflebeem said the United States has not underestimated the difficulty of the task in fighting the Taliban and al-Qaeda.

"We've always had wars where you had clear lines and you knew clearly who the enemy was. And this is no longer the case," he said.

"These are the kind of people who, one, want to survive to be able to rain their terror and fear on others around the world, and they're very patient," Adm. Stufflebeem said. "We're going to have to have equal patience and we're going to have to have more determination to win. But this is going to be a long, long campaign."

Mr. Gul said he is not optimistic about the prospects: "I think the U.S. has already walked into a trap."